IS PAYPAL A GOOD INVESTMENT?

February 13, 2022 0 By bullheadedbear
Is PayPal a good investment?
Is PayPal a buy?
PayPal stock valuation.

Is PayPal a good investment? What is PayPal’s fair value / Intrinsic value? Is PayPal a buy at current valuations? We are trying to find out these questions in the following fundamental analysis.

The data used in the below analysis and discounted cash flow model comes from a combination of SharePad, Finbox, and the PayPal Investor Relations website. Additionally, the dcf model uses personal assumptions, which are shared below.

Table of Contents

PayPal Company Overview

PayPal Fundamental Analysis

PayPal Valuation Review

Valuation Summary

PayPal Company Overview

PayPal Introduction

PayPal Company Description

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names.

The company’s payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments in approximately 200 markets and in approximately 100 currencies, withdraw funds to their bank accounts in 56 currencies, and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in 25 currencies.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

PayPal Fundamentals

Current Share Price (m)$115.29Revenue (m)$25,371
Shares Outstanding1,168EBITDA (m)$5,589
Market Cap (m)$134,659EBITDA Margin22%
Cash (m)$9,048EV/EBITDA24x
Total Debt (m)$9,500Debt / EBITDA1.62x
Enterprise Value (m)$134,207P/E29.8
PYPL Valuations

PayPal Revenue Breakdown – Region

RegionRevenue (m)%
United States$13,71254.0%
Other Countries$9,31936.7%
United Kingdom$2,3409.2%
PYPL Revenue by Region

PayPal Revenue Breakdown – Product

ProductRevenue (m)%
Transaction Revenues$23,40292.2%
Revenue from other services$1,9697.8%
PYPL Revenue by Product

PayPal Share Price History

Current Price:384.3952 WK Low:359.7052 WK High:691.69
PayPal Share Price vs Index
PYPL Share Price vs Index
PYPL Share Price vs Index
SharePad

PayPal Shareholder Ownership

ShareholderHolding ($m)%
Vanguard Group Inc90.67.8%
BlackRock Inc82.47.1%
FMR LLC45.53.9%
State Street Corporation45.23.8%
FMR Inc44.43.8%
Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC35.13.0%
Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd34.02.9%
Comprehensive Financial Management LLC31.32.7%
Capital World Investors27.62.4%
T. Rowe Price Associates  Inc.27.52.3%
BlackRock Fund Advisors24.02.1%
Geode Capital Management  LLC18.91.6%
Capital Research and Management Company18.31.6%
Invesco Capital Management LLC17.91.5%
Capital Group16.01.4%
Northern Trust Corp13.11.1%
JPMorgan Chase & Co13.11.1%
SPDR State Street Global Advisors12.51.1%
Fundsmith LLP12.31.0%
State Street Global Advisors (Aus) Ltd12.01.0%
Edgewood Management LLC12.01.0%
Fisher Asset Management  LLC12.01.0%
Others523.344.8%
PayPal Shareholder Ownership
PYPL Shareholder Ownership
PYPL Shareholder Ownership

PayPal Fundamental Analysis

PayPal Income Statement

PayPal Income Statement Waterfall – 2021

PayPal Income Statement Waterfall
PYPL Inceom Statement Waterfall
PYPL Income Statement Waterfall

Revenue of $25,371 million up from $21,454 million in 2020. Cost of sales includes transaction expenses. Operating expenses include usual operating expenses, plus technology development, customer support and restructuring charges.

5 Year View

PayPal 5 year Income Statement Overview
PYPL 5 year Income Statement Overview
PYPL 5 Year Income Statement Overview

Revenue is growing year on year. EBITDA at 22%, slightly up in last few years but down vs 2017. Net income margin at 16.4%, up over the 5-year period, but down from 19.4% in 2020.

PayPal Year Income Statement

2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A
Sales Revenue13,09415,45117,77221,45425,371
Cost of Sales-5,430-6,855-8,170-9,675-11,375
Gross Profit7,6648,5969,60211,77913,996
Operating Expenses-5,405-6,093-6,812-8,351-9,672
Operating Income2,2592,5032,7903,4284,324
Other Income, net-137-2181261,758-50
Interest, net789182-121-175
Income Before Taxes2,2002,3762,9985,0654,099
Income Taxes-405-319-539-86370
Net Income1,7952,0572,4594,2024,169
     
EBITDA3,0643,2793,7024,6175,589
PYPL Income Statment

PayPal Growth

PayPal Income Statement Growth Overview
PYPL Growth

Growth down on all measures verses 2020 and verses 2017, particularly net income, which declined due to higher cost of sales.

PayPal Balance Sheet

PayPal Assets – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Assets - Balance Sheet
PYPL Assets
PYPL Assets (Balance Sheet)

Other current assets are predominantly funds receivable and customer accounts. Funds receivable are transactions pending clearance between external payment networks. Goodwill & Intangibles increased due to 5 acquisitions in 2021, with Paidy being the largest. It also included the Honey Science acquisition in 2020.

PayPal Liabilities – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Liabilities - Balance Sheet
PYPL Liabilities
PYPL Liabilities (Balance Sheet)

Like other current assets, other current liabilities are predominantly funds payable. Again this is the delay in clearing transactions between external payment networks. Long term debt of $8,049 million is down from $8,939 million in 2020.

PayPal Equity – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Equity - Balance Sheet
PYPL Equity (Balance Sheet)

PayPal Balance Sheet – 5 Year View

PayPal (PYPL) 5 Year Balance Sheet Overview
PYPL 5 Year Balance Sheet Overview
SharePad

PayPal Cash Flow Statement

PayPal Cash Flow From Operations – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Cash from operations
PYPL Cash Flow From Operations (Cash Flow Statement)

Other operating activities include stock-based compensation and provisions for transaction and credit losses.

PayPal Cash From Financing – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Cash from Financing
PYPL Cash From Financing (Cash Flow Statement)

$3,373 million share buyback vs $162 million issuances and $361 million debt repaid vs $272 million debt issued. Other financial activities include funds payable and amounts due to customers, and tax withholding.

PayPal Cash From Investing – Fiscal Year End 2021

PayPal Cash from Investing
PYPL Cash From Investing (Cash Flow Statement)

Other investing activities include $39,698 million of maturities and sales of investments, offset by $40,116 million of new purchases of investments. It also includes $2,763 million of acquisitions, plus some other smaller line items.

PayPal Cash Flow Statement – 5 Year View

PayPal 5 year cash flow statement
PYPL 5 Year Cash Flow Statement

The cash balance at the end of 2021 was only slightly below the end of 2020, dropping from $18,040 million to $18,029 million.

PayPal Valuation Review

Analysts View of PayPal

PayPal Price Target – Analysts’ Price Targets

Analyst NameFirmPositionPrice TargetAction
Dan DolevMizuho SecuritiesBuy175.00Reiterated
Jason KupferbergBank of America SecuritiesBuy175.00Reiterated
Ramsey El AssalBarclaysBuy200.00Maintained
Werner EisenmannDZ BANK AGHold140.00Downgraded
Harshita RawatBernsteinHold140.00Maintained
Hal GoetschLoop Capital MarketsBuy212.00Maintained
James FotheringhamBMO CapitalBuy180.00Maintained
Joseph VafiCanaccord GenuityBuy215.00Maintained
Josh BeckKeyBancBuy200.00Maintained
James FaucetteMorgan StanleyBuy190.00Maintained
Mayank TandonNeedhamHoldMaintained
Daniel PerlinRBC CapitalBuy180.00Maintained
Andrew JeffreyTruist FinancialHold130.00Maintained
Darrin PellerWolfe ResearchBuy160.00Maintained
Georgios MihalosCowen & Co.Buy147.00Maintained
Moshe KatriWedbushBuy170.00Maintained
Mark PalmerBTIGHoldDowngraded
Bryan KeaneDeutsche BankBuy200.00Reiterated
David ScharfJMP SecuritiesBuy198.00Maintained
Tien Tsin HuangJ.P. MorganBuy190.00Maintained
Tammy QiuBerenberg BankBuy190.00Maintained
James FriedmanSusquehannaBuy220.00Maintained
Lisa ElisMoffettNathansonBuy190.00Maintained
Timothy ChiodoCredit SuisseBuy190.00Maintained
John DavisRaymond JamesHoldDowngraded
Chris BrendlerD.A. DavidsonBuyMaintained
Christopher DonatPiper SandlerBuy185.00Maintained
David TogutEvercore ISIBuy245.00Maintained
Kunaal MaldeAtlantic EquitiesBuy180.00Maintained
Rayna KumarUBSBuy218.00Maintained
Andrew BauchSMBC NikkoSell125.00Maintained
Sean HorganRosenblatt SecuritiesBuy216.00Maintained
Trevor WilliamsJefferiesHold145.00Maintained
Martin Marandon-CarlhianOddo BHFHold200.00Downgraded
Colin SebastianRobert W. BairdBuy205.00Maintained
Ashwin ShirvaikarCitigroupBuy235.00Maintained
Alexandre FaureBNP ParibasHold200.00Downgraded
Dominick GabrieleOppenheimerBuy268.00Maintained
Hans EngelErste GroupHoldDowngraded
Timothy WilliWells FargoBuyMaintained
Michael Del GrossoCompass PointBuy290.00Maintained
Unknown AnalystRedburn PartnersBuyInitiated Coverage
PayPal anlayst price targets
PYPL Analysts Price Targets

74% of analysis rate Paypal as a buy, with only 2% rating as a sell. However, 15% have downgraded their view with no analyst upgrading. The analysts’ price targets range from £125 to $290, all of which are above the current market price.

Analysts’ Consensus – Is PayPal a Buy?

PayPal Analyst consensus view
PYPL Analysts Consensus

Analysts Recent Actions for PayPal Stock

PayPal Analysts recent actions
PayPal Analysts Actions
SharePad

PayPal Comparable Analysis

Caution when comparing with other companies.
Caution

Caution should be taken as no two companies are precisely the same. Companies can be at different stages of maturity, have different operating segments, operate in different geographical regions etc. Best efforts have been made to use similar companies in the below analysis.

PayPal Comps Analysis

When comparing valuation multiples with other companies in the finance sector similar to PayPal, we can determine average multiples to calculate the value of PayPal.

Using year-end 2021 financials and the average valuation multiples, we get a valuation range between $90.75 and $172.12.

PayPal Comp Analysis - Current financials
PYPL Comps Analysis Valuations – Current Financials

Using these identical average multiples but with the 5-year forecasted financials, we get a 5-year price range of $166 to $377. (These figures have not been discounted back to present value.)

PayPal Comp Analysis - Forecasts financials
PYPL Comps Analysis Valuations – Forecasted Financials

Comps Analysis Valuations

PayPal Comp Values Overview
PYPL Comps Valuation Range – Current vs Forecast

Companies used in determining the comp values are as follows:

PayPal Holdings, Capital One Financial Corp, Discover Financial Services, GreenBox Pos, International Money Express, PagSeguro Digital Ltd, Visa Inc and Wise Plc.

Outliers have been removed, and not all companies were included in every multiple calculation due to negative cash flows or unavailable data sources.

PayPal Valuation Multiples Historical vs Current

PayPal EV/EBITDA

PayPal Ev/EBITDA multiple trend
PYPL EV/EBITDA Multiple

PayPal’s EV/EBITDA multiples at 22.5 are lower than the 2,3,5,7 & 10-year averages. The EV/EBITDA was lower in 2015 and 2016 at 19.8 and 19.5. PayPal’s EV/EBITDA peaked in 2020 at 59.4, followed by 32 in 2019.

PayPal EV/Sales

PayPal EV/Sales multiple trend
PYPL EV/Sales Multiple

PayPal’s EV/Sales is also lower than the 2,3,5,7 & 10-year averages with an EV/Sales of 5. Again only 2015 and 2016 were lower at 4.6 & 4.2. PayPal’s EV/Sales peaked in 2020 at 13, followed by 7.2 in 2019.

Paypal P/E – Price/Earnings Multiple

PayPal PE multiple trend
PYPL P/E Ratio

P/E – Price to Earnings of 29.8 follows the same pattern as EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales, the lowest in 5 years. 2015 and 2016 were lower at 28.1 & 26.3. 2020 was the peak at a vast 101.9, followed by 2019 at 54.8.

PayPal P/S – Price/Sales Multiple

PayPal PS multiple trend
PYPL P/S Ratio

P/S – Price to Sales or Price to Revenue again follows the same pattern, although the current multiple is closer to the 2015 & 2016 multiples, 4.6 & 4.2. Again 2020 was the peak at 13.

PayPal P/FCF – Price/Free Cash Flow

PayPal P/FCF multiple trend
PYPL P/FCF Ratio

P/FCF – Price to Free Cash Flow has a slightly different pattern. It is still lower than previous averages, and 2020 peaked at 55.7. However, the current multiple of 23 is lower than in 2015 at 24.4.

PayPal DCF – Assumptions & Base Case FCF

PayPal DCF Assumptions

 Tax Rate18.0%
 Discount Rate6.8%
 Perpetual Growth Rate2.0%
 EV/EBITDA Multiple15.0x
 Transaction Date12/02/2022
 Fiscal Year-End31/12/2022
 Current Price$115.29
 Shares Outstanding1,168
 Debt (m)$9,048
 Cash (m)$9,500
 Capex (m)$908

In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a 17% annual revenue growth rate over the next 5-years. Analysts average forecasts at 17.6%; therefore, our base is slightly more conservative. The comparisons between our bear case, base case & bull case scenarios are detailed below.

PayPal Cash Flow Forecast – Base Case DCF Model

PayPal Base Case DCF Model Free Cash Flow Forecast
PYPL Free Cash Flow Forecast – Base Case

Using the above assumptions and base case scenario, the PayPal discounted cash flow model shows a slight reduction in free cash flow for 2022 of $4,685 million, then growth to $8,733 million in 2026.

SharePad

PayPal DCF – EBITDA Exit – Valuation & IRR

PayPal Terminal Value – EBITDA Exit

Final Forecast EBITDA (m)$12,335
EV/EBITDA Multiple15x
TERMINAL VALUE (m)$185,021
PYPL Terminal Value – EBITDA Exit

PayPal Intrinsic Value – EBITDA Exit

 Enterprise Value (m)$158,402
 Plus: Cash (m)$9,500
 Less: Debt (m)$9,048
 Equity Value (m)$158,854
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE$136.00
PYPL Intrinsic Value – EBITDA Exit

PayPal Market Value vs Intrinsic Value – EBITDA Exit

PayPal DCF Market Value vs intrinsic Value - Ebitda Exit Multiple
PYPL Market Value vs Intrinsic Value – EBITDA Exit

Based on the model assumptions and using the EBITDA exit multiple of 15, the intrinsic value for PayPal is $136. This means there is a potential upside of $21.

 Market Value$115.29
 Upside$20.71
 Intrinsic Value$136.00
PYPL Upside

PayPal Investment – Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

 Target Price Upside18%
 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)10.7%
PYPL IRR

PayPal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) vs Purchase Price

PayPal IRR vs Stock PRice
PYPL IRR vs Purchase Price

Based on the model assumptions and the current market share price of $115.29, there is an internal rate of return of 10.7%. If the stock price dropped 20% to $92, the IRR would be 16.3%.

Finbox Get Started

PayPal DCF – EBITDA Exit – Sensitivity Analysis

Variables Influence on Model

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Ebitda Exit Multiple
PYPL EBITDA Exit DCF Model Sensitivity Analysis

Changes to the revenue have the most significant impact on this model by a considerable margin. You can also see that a positive shift in revenue has a more substantial impact on the model. Next, changes to the cost of sales have the most significant impact, followed by the EV/EBITDA multiple and the discount rate.

The intrinsic value calculated from the model uses the assumptions: EBITDA Exit Multiple of 15x, WACC of 6.8% and final forecast EBITDA of $12,335. The tables below show the intrinsic value based on different assumption scenarios.

Impact on Intrinsic Value Price Per Share

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - EV/EBITDA & EBITDA
PYPL Sensitivity Analysis – EBITDA & EV/EBITDA

When reviewing different EV/EBITDA multiples with different final forecasted EBITDA results, we see that the lowest value per share is $108. This is based on an EV/EBITDA exit multiple of 12.0x and a final EBITDA figure of $11,718 million, which is -5% of the base case forecast. The highest value per share is $166, based on an EV/EBITDA exit multiple of 18.0x and a financial EBITDA figure of $12,951 million, which is +5% of the base case forecast.

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Discount Factor (WACC) & EBITDA
PYPL Sensitivity Analysis – EBITDA & Discount Factor

When reviewing different discount factors (WACC) with different final forecasted EBITDA results, we can see the lowest value per share is $125. This is based on a discount factor of 7.8% and a final EBITDA figure of $11,718 million, which is -5% of the base case forecast. The highest value per share is $148, based on a discount factor of 5.8% and a financial EBITDA figure of $12,951 million, which is +5% of the base case forecast.

SharePad

PayPal DCF – Perpetual Growth Rate – Valuation & IRR

PayPal Terminal Value – Perpetual Growth

Final Forecast FCFf (m)$8,082
Perpetual Growth Rate2.0%
TERMINAL VALUE (m)$172,239
PYPL Terminal Value – Perpetual Growth

PayPal Intrinsic Value – Perpetual Growth

 Enterprise Value (m)$149,127
 Plus: Cash (m)$9,500
 Less: Debt (m)$9,048
 Equity Value (m)$149,579
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE$128.06
PYPL Intrinsic Value – Perpetual Growth

PayPal Market Value vs Intrinsic Value – Perpetual Growth

PayPal DCF Market Value vs Intrinsic value
PYPL Market Value vs Intrinsic Value – Perpetual Growth

Based on the model assumptions using the perpetual growth rate, the intrinsic value is $128, which is $13 higher than the current market value.

 Market Value$115.29
 Upside$12.77
 Intrinsic Value$128.06
PYPL Upside – Perpetual Growth

PayPal Investment – Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

 Target Price Upside11%
 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)9%
PYPL IRR – Perpetual Growth

PayPal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) vs Purchase Price

PayPal IRR vs Purchase price
PYPL IRR vs Purchase Price – Perpetual Growth

Based on the model assumptions and the current market share price of $115.29, there is an internal rate of return of 9%. If the stock price dropped 20% to $92, the IRR would be 14.8%.

PayPal DCF – Perpetual Growth Rate – Sensitivity Analysis

Variables’ Influence on Model

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Variables
PYPL DCF Model Variables – Perpetual Growth

Changes to revenue have the most significant impact on this model, followed by changes to the cost of sales. A positive shift in revenue has a more substantial impact on the model than a negative change.

The perpetual growth rate shows less of an impact. However, this chart is based on relative % movements. Therefore, the perpetual growth rate could vary much larger than the other variables. For example, a change from 2% to 3% is a 50% increase, which you are less likely to see for the other variables. The discount rate has the most negligible impact on the model.

The model assumptions show a perpetual growth rate of 2%, WACC of 6.8% and a final forecast FCFf of $8,082. The tables below show the intrinsic value based on different assumption scenarios. 

Impact on Intrinsic Value Per Share

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetual Growth Rate & Free Cash Flow
PYPL Sensitivity Analysis – Perpetual Growth

When reviewing different perpetual growth rates with different final forecasted free cash flow results, we can see the lowest value per share is $114. This is based on a perpetual growth rate of 1.6% and a final free cash flow figure of $7,678 million, which is -5% of the base case forecast. The highest value per share is $151, based on a perpetual growth rate of 2.6% and a financial free cash flow figure of $8,486 million, which is +5% of the base case forecast.

PayPal DCF Sensitivity Analysis - Discount Factor & Free Cash Flow
PYPL Sensitivity Analysis – WACC

When reviewing different discount factors with different final forecasted free cash flow results, we can see the lowest value per share is $100. this is based on a discount factor of 7.8% and a final free cash flow figure of $7,678 million, which is -5% of the base case forecast. The highest value per share is $170, based on a discount factor of 5.8% and a financial free cash flow figure of $8,486 million, which is +5% of the base case forecast.

PayPal Discounted Cash Flow Model – Scenario Analysis

The above DCF models were based on the base case scenario of 17% annual revenue growth over the next five years. Below is a snapshot of the bear case and bull case scenarios.

PayPal DCF – Bear Case Scenario

PayPal Revenue Growth Forecast – Bear Case

Bear Case DCF Revenue Growth Forecast
PYPL Bear Case Revenue Forecast

We have set the revenue growth to decline for the bear case scenario, starting at 15% in 2022, which is the low end of the analysts’ forecasts. Revenue then declines by 1% a year for the next four years of the forecast.

PayPal Bear Case Free Cash Flow Forecast

PayPal Bear Case Free Cash Flow Forecast
PYPL Bear Case Free Cash Flow Forecast

Bear case free cash flow forecast starts at $4,588 million in 2022 and grows to $7,249 million in 2026.

PayPal Bear Case Market Value vs Intrinsic Value

PayPal Bear Case Market Value vs Intrinsic Value DCF
PYPL Bear Case Market Value vs Intrinsic Value

The current market value is $115.29. For the bull case scenario, using the EBITDA exit multiple for terminal value, the intrinsic value is $115.93. Therefore, only $0.64 higher than the current market value. If we use the perpetual growth rate for the terminal value, the intrinsic value is $110.41, which is $4.88 lower than the current market value of $115.29.

PayPal DCF – Bull Case Scenario

PayPal Revenue Growth Forecast – Bull Case

PayPal Bull Case Revenue Forecast
PYPL Bull Base Revenue Forecast

We have set the revenue growth rate at 20% annually for the next five years for the bull case scenario. This is the top end of analysts’ forecasts.

PayPal Bull Case Free Cash Flow Forecast

PayPal Bull Case Cash Flow Forecast
PYPL Bull Case Free Cash Flow Forecast

The bull case free cash flow forecast starts at $4,658 million for 2022 and grows to $8,733 million in 2026.

PayPal Bull Case Market Value vs Intrinsic Value

PayPal Bull Case DCF Market Value vs Intrinsic Value
PYPL Bull Case Market Value vs Intrinsic Value

The current market value is $115.29. For the bear case scenario, using the EBITDA exit multiple for terminal value, the intrinsic value is $158.83. Therefore, $43.54 higher than the current market value. If we use the perpetual growth rate for the terminal value, the intrinsic value is $166.62, which is $51.33 higher than the current market value of $115.29.

PayPal Valuation Summary

PayPal Value Valuation Football Field Chart

PayPal Valuation Overview
52 week trading range
analyst forecasts
comparable valuations
DCF Valuations
PYPL Valuation Overview

Is PayPal a good investment?
Is PayPal a buy at current valuations?

PayPal is currently trading at the bottom end of its 52-week trading range. All analysts’ forecasts are above the current market value, with the highest forecasts being more than double the current value. The comparable analysis and the average multiples show that the current value is in the mid-range of the valuations.

Looking at the DCF models, the current market value is at the top end of the bear case scenario. The base case scenario is slightly above current values, ranging from £128 to $126. The bull case scenario leaves more margin of safety with a range from $159 to $167.

Based on this analysis, PayPal could potentially be a good investment if it can maintain annual growth at 17% or above. Conversely, if PayPal’s growth starts to decline, it will significantly impact potential future returns.

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Disclosure

I/we have open long positions in PayPal. We may increase this position depending on market movements over the coming weeks.

This analysis has been written by a Bull Headed Bear analyst/author for Bull-Headed-Bear.com. I/we receive no compensation for this post other than any payments received from ads or affiliate links.